Meaningful matches are still weeks away with a lot of transfer business to happen, but why not take the temperature of what English Premier League teams and their fans should be sweating the drop for our upcoming 2021-2022 season?
After all, July is the time for beginnings and optimism. Everyone is level on the English Premier League table. Who knows what magical play can push a team into the highest levels, maybe even compete for European or Cup places? And yet while many fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t land a top four place, many others are simply hoping their team doesn’t end up playing next season in the Championship.
HOW I DID THIS
I started with published relegation odds from such sites as Bet365, Betfred and Unibet, then took into consideration factors such as:
- The financial status of the club (and their ability to add players if they need to before and during the season)
- Roster losses and additions since the end of last season
- Coaching or other changes
I then sorted the teams into groups based on how worried they should be over relegation. Each group is listed with an average of odds currently posted by bet sites as of 20 July 2021 (quoted are winning odds). So here we go!
Comfortable in Their Own Skins
These top clubs have no time to worry about no stinking relegation. A disaster of a season will be missing out on the Champions League. Meanwhile Manchester City are coming out as the odds on favorite to top the table come the end of the season.
- Manchester City (8/13)
- Liverpool (5/1)
- Chelsea (11/2)
- Manchester United (8/1)
Comfortable, but…
Like those clubs above, these teams have no time to worry about no stinking relegation… but… they are facing important changes in their rosters. Do the Arsenal youngsters continue to develop or regress a step or two? How much more do aging Leicester veterans like Jamia Vardy still have in the tank? Will there be big changes in the Tottenham lineup? Get things wrong and it could all blow up in their faces. These clubs almost certainly won’t go down, but they could be slogging uncomfortably close to the bottom of the table for much of the season if they don’t get it right.
- Leicester City (50/1)
- Tottenham (50/1)
- Arsenal (66/1)
Should Be Safe
These clubs should be fighting for middle table positions. A lot of bad things will need to happen for these to get sucked down into the relegation mire. It has happened before.
- Everton (100/1)
- Leeds (100/1)
- Aston Villa (150/1)
- West Ham (150/1)
Looking Over Their Shoulder
Weaker clubs with potentially unbalanced or thin rosters, these clubs will want to get off to a positive start to not get sucked into the relegation quagmire.
- Brighton and Hove Albion (250/1)
- Wolverhampton (250/1)
- Southampton (500/1)
- Newcastle (750/1)
One Step Away
Not the favorites to go down, but the odds are long that at least one of these teams will be playing in the Championship the following season, except their most ardent of fans of course.
- Brentford (1000/1)
- Burnley (1000/1)
- Crystal Palace (1000/1)
Smart Money Drop Candidates
Norwich and Watford come in as the odds on favorites to do the drop by the end of the season. They will need significant talent upgrades and a fine bit of luck to weather the storm.
- Norwich (1500/1)
- Watford (1500/1)
The Relegation Nation Drop Prediction for 2021-2022:
All three of our predicted teams all have the same issue looking forward – will they be able to score enough goals to bring points to the table. It is still early, and it is more than possible the transfer market will land some key figures to their squads, but at this early time:
18. Burnley
19. Brentford
20. Watford
Agree? Disagree? What clubs do you pick for going down?
Relegation Nation 