Meaningful matches are still weeks away with a lot of transfer business to happen, but why not take the temperature of what English League One teams and their fans should be sweating the drop for our upcoming 2021-2022 season?
After all, July is the time for beginnings and optimism. Everyone is level on the English League One table. Who knows what magical play can push a team into the highest levels, maybe even compete for Cup silverware or promotion places? And yet while many fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t land a promotion slot, many others are simply hoping their team doesn’t end up playing next season in League Two.
HOW I DID THIS
I started with published relegation odds from such sites as Bet365, Betfred and Unibet, then took into consideration factors such as:
- The financial status of the club (and their ability to add players if they need to before and during the season)
- Roster losses and additions since the end of last season
- Coaching or other changes
I then sorted the teams into groups based on how worried they should be over relegation. Each group is listed with an average of relegation odds currently posted by bet sites as of 25 July 2021. So here we go!
Comfortable in Their Own Skins
These top clubs have no time to worry about no stinking relegation. A disaster of a season will be missing out on promotion to the English Championship.
- Sunderland (20/1)
- Ipswich Town (16/1)
- Portsmouth (14/1)
- Charlatan Athletic (12/1)
Comfortable, but…
Like those clubs above, these teams have no time to worry about no stinking relegation… but… they are facing important changes in their rosters. Will the youngsters continue to develop or regress a step or two? How much more do aging veterans still have in the tank? Will there be big changes in the lineup? Get things wrong and it could all blow up in their faces. These clubs almost certainly won’t go down, but they could be slogging uncomfortably close to the bottom of the table for much of the season if they don’t get it right.
- Wigan Athletic (11/1)
- Rotherham United (11/1)
- Sheffield Wednesday (10/1)
- Lincoln City (10/1)
Should Be Safe
These clubs should be fighting for middle table positions. A lot of bad things will need to happen for these to get sucked down into the relegation mire. It has happened before.
- Oxford United (17/2)
- Milton Keys Dons (9/1)
- Bolton (9/1)
- Wycombe Wanderers (9/1)
- Doncaster Rovers (6/1)
Looking Over Their Shoulder
Weaker clubs with potentially unbalanced or thin rosters, these clubs will want to get off to a positive start to not get sucked into the relegation quagmire.
- Burton Albion (9/2)
- Fleetwood Town (7/2)
- Shrewsbury Town (4/1)
- Gillingham (4/1)
One Step Away
Not the favorites to go down, but the odds are long that at least one of these teams will be playing in League Two the following season, except their most ardent of fans of course.
- Plymouth Argyle (7/2)
- Crewe Alexandra (3/1)
- Accrington Stanley (3/1)
- AFC Wimbledon (2/1)
Smart Money Drop Candidates
Three clubs come in as the odds on favorites to do the drop by the end of the season. They will need significant talent upgrades and a fine bit of luck to weather the storm and remain in English League One.
- Cheltenham Town (13/8)
- Cambridge United (6/5)
- Morecambe (1/1)
The Relegation Nation Drop Prediction for 2021-2022:
There is a long list of teams that look to be struggling at the bottom of the table this season, but a combination of overall lack of talent, along with thin and unbalanced squads look like the following are probably going to be looking up at the table. It is still early, and it is more than possible the transfer market will land some key figures to their squads, but at this early time:
21. Morecambe
22. Accrington Stanley
23. Crewe Alexandra
24. Cheltenham Town
Agree? Disagree? What clubs do you pick for going down?
Relegation Nation 