Meaningful matches are now days away with a lot of transfer business to happen, but why not take the temperature of what English League Two teams and their fans should be sweating the drop for our upcoming 2021-2022 season?
After all, July is the time for beginnings and optimism. Everyone is level on the English League Two table. Who knows what magical play can push a team into the highest levels, maybe even compete for Cup silverware or promotion places? And yet while many fans will be disappointed if their team doesn’t land a promotion slot, many others are simply hoping their team doesn’t end up playing next season in Non-League.
HOW I DID THIS
I started with published relegation odds from such sites as Bet365, Betfred and Unibet, then took into consideration factors such as:
- The financial status of the club (and their ability to add players if they need to before and during the season)
- Roster losses and additions since the end of last season
- Coaching or other changes
I then sorted the teams into groups based on how worried they should be over relegation. Each group is listed with an average of relegation odds currently posted by bet sites as of 25 July 2021. So here we go!
Comfortable in Their Own Skins
These top clubs have no time to worry about no stinking relegation. A disaster of a season will be missing out on one of the four promotion slots to English League One..
- Salford City (29/1)
- Bristol Rovers (20/1)
- Bradford City (17/1)
- Mansfield Town (16/1)
Comfortable, but…
Like those clubs above, these teams have no time to worry about no stinking relegation… but… they are facing important changes in their rosters. Will the youngsters continue to develop or regress a step or two? How much more do aging veterans still have in the tank? Will there be big changes in the lineup? Get things wrong and it could all blow up in their faces. These clubs almost certainly won’t go down, but they could be slogging uncomfortably close to the bottom of the table for much of the season if they don’t get it right.
- Forest Green Rovers (15/1)
- Exeter (15/1)
- Leyton Orient (14/1)
- Port Vale (14/1)
- Northampton (14/1)
- Tranmere Rovers (13/1)
Should Be Safe
These clubs should be fighting for middle table positions. A lot of bad things will need to happen for these to get sucked down into the relegation mire. It has happened before.
- Rochdale (12/1)
- Newport County 11/1)
- Colchester (11/1)
- Walsall (10/1)
- Harrogate Town (7/1)
Looking Over Their Shoulder
Weaker clubs with potentially unbalanced or thin rosters, these clubs will want to get off to a positive start to not get sucked into the relegation quagmire.
- CrawleyTown (5/1)
- Oldham (11/2)
- Hartlepool (5/1)
- Scunthorpe (5/1)
- Stevenage (5/1)
One Step Away
Not the favorites to go down, but the odds are strong that at least one of these teams will be playing in non league football the following season, except their most ardent of fans of course.
- Barrow (9/2)
- Swindon Town (9/2)
The Smart Money Drop Candidate
Sutton United comes in as the odds on favorite to do the drop by the end of the season, although not by a huge factor.
- Sutton United (13/8)
The Relegation Nation Drop Prediction for 2021-2022:
There is a long list of teams that look like they will be struggling at the bottom of the table this season. It helps that there are only two relegation positions in League Two. But that simply indicates to me we may have one of the most fascinating relegation battles in over a decade. You could truly make the case for relegation for a half dozen teams to be serious contenders for the drop.
23. Barrow
24. Swindon Town
Agree? Disagree? What clubs do you pick for going down?
Relegation Nation 